Beverage cans drive growth in metal packaging

Aluminium as a packaging choice is growing globally, new data shows, outpacing all packaging sectors, and driven by its use for beverages.

The report, ‘Global Metal Packaging Market Outlook 2026-2031’ presented by Mark Smyth of MS Can Solutions and produced with Smithers market analysts, at Metpack in Germany, valued the global packaging market at an estimated USD1.2 trillion in 2025, with expected growth of 3.5% per annum to reach a value of USD1.4tr in 2031.

Metal packaging has about a 13% share of this market, with an estimated value of USD155bn in 2025. Growth of 3% per annum is forecast to reach a value of USD185bn in 2031. The leading markets are the US, followed by China, Brazil, and Germany.

Cans, which include beverage cans, food cans, aerosols, and food & speciality, represent a 40% share of packaging in value terms, with steel at 60%. Smyth said aluminium is continuing to grow and that by 2031, is expected to reach around 42%. 

“Beverage is the growth motor for metal packaging,” Smyth explained. “That doesn’t mean to say there isn’t growth elsewhere. There is always growth. You have to look for where that is. The leading metal packaging country is the US, followed by China. That is always going to be the case through 2031.”

Total can value in 2019 was USD62.4bn with growth of 7.4%, reaching USD89.7bn in 2025, representing volume growth of 3% to 601bn.

The leading can segment is D&I aluminium beverage cans, according to the report, with volumes growing at around 16bn units per annum to 2025. Forecasts estimate that by 2031, volumes will be growing at 18bn units per annum with a value of USD50bn, representing growth of 3.2%.

Mark Smyth showing a forecast for the can sector in the top five countries. Click on image to enlarge

The US remains the number one producer, followed by China, Brazil, Japan and Mexico. “There are about 23 billion steel D&I cans in Asia, in places like Japan and Southeast Asia,” Smyth added. “Japan is massive in cans, specifically drinks cans. The Japanese are the masters in terms of making beverage cans. Mexico is also coming through.”

Other figures showed food can growth is at 8.2% to USD26.4bn to 2025, and is expected to grow by 0.9% to USD30bn by 2031.

In aerosol cans, China has overtaken the US as the number one producer, with Brazil at number three. Growth was 9% to USD3.50bn at 2025, and is estimated to grow 2.2% to USD6.2bn by 2031.

China, meanwhile, is the largest producer of food & speciality cans (general line) due to its large paint market, with India number two thanks to its large vegetable oil market. Growth was at 6.5% to USD15.4bn at 2025, and is expected to grow 1.9% to USD17.4bn by 2031.

As a result of the growth, capex for equipment sales is also up amongst the top three beverage canmakers, Smyth continued.

“We had this massive growth that came in and then went away. It’s nothing to do with Covid. This growth was already there in 2016. It was a combination of factors. In 2025 new equipment sales were back. Now we’re back on new equipment, and now we’re back on new plants, in Afghanistan of all places. So, all of a sudden we have new plants announced, and the rest of the industry is following this path.”

                          Mark Smyth addresses the audience at Metpack